Buddhism and the ChangingSociety in Modern Ceylon

I. The historical background

No other country but Ceylon in South-east Asia can claim that Buddhism was introduced by the royal children of Emperor Asoka, viz., Mahinda and Sanghamittā during the reign of King Devanampiya-Tissa[1] in the third century B.C. Besides the royal patronage given by the Indian and Ceylonese kings, Mahinda was regarded the 5th patriarch who transmitted[2] and observed the Vinaya tradition of Upāli. Upāli, as we know, was one of the Buddha’s chief disciples responsible for collecting the Vinaya literature during the first Buddhish Council at Rājagaha. On the basis of this background, it is reason-able to appreciate the proud claim of the Buddhists in Ceylon that their country has had the privilege of preserving the pristine purity of Buddhism for over 2,000 years. This was their official declaration made during the 2,500-year Buddhajayanti celebrations in 1956.

On the literary front, Ceylon is equally proud[3] of the fact that the Pali Tripitaka was committed to writing in 43 B. C. at the Aluvihāra monastery near Mātala.　This event was a landmark in the development of Buddhist literature, at least for the canonical literature of the Theravādin School. It had far-reaching consequences. On the foundation of these documents, Bud-dhaghosa, a learned Indian Buddhist scholar of the 5th century, was able to write commentaries on the five Nikāyas and other texts as well as his own famous composition the Visuddhimagga, or the Path of Purification. Undoubtedly his literary contributions enriched the contents of Buddhist literature and preserved the Buddhist traditions. As these events took place in Ceylon she served as the custodian of the Pali Tripitaka, without which the followers of Buddhism in future generations might not have had the opportunity of studying the teachings of the Buddha. Obviously even the Pali Text Society foundedby T. W. Rhys Davids in England is indebted to the endeavours of the Ceylon Buddhists. A heritage so rich and valuable is certainly worthy to be proud of. Under these circumstances Ceylon holds a unique position in Buddhist history and her neighbouring countries like Burma, Thailand and Cambodia have been greatly benefited in some way or other throughout the centuries.

II. Buddhism and the state

Before we turn our attention to the modern situation in Ceylon, it would be helpful if we could trace the Buddhist practice in ancient India regarding the relationship between the Sangha and the state. The Buddha is typ cal in this regard. Judging by the geographical limits within which he travelled and spent most of his time in missionary activities, and his contact with the leading kings and nobles such as Bimbisāra[4] and Ajātasattu of Magadha, Pasenadi of Kosala, the Licchavis and Vajjians of Vesāli, the Mallas of Kusināra, the Sākyas of Kapilavatthu and others, one may say that he was well-disposed towards the administration of the areas concerned. Among the kingdoms mentioned above Magadha[5] had a great attraction for him. It was a center in which new religious and philosophical thinkers freely expounded their doctrines. In general they ignored the Vedic authority and Brahmanic traditions and strongly protested against the caste distinction and social in justice. The support given to these teachers was tremendous, as can be seen from the example of King Bimbisara. It is recorded that he offered a half of his kingdom to the Buddha he decide to remain in the secular world At a later date, owing to his request, the Buddha instituted the ceremony of the recitation of the Pratimosksha[6] (Patimokkha) Sutra and declaration of purity of conduct by the bhikkhus on every new-moon and full-moon day, following the current practice of other religious organizations. Throughout his missionary career and even into the next generation of his disciples the kings of Magadha gave their full support and co-operation, hence a firm foundation for Buddhism was laid in Central India. On the part of the Buddha, his co-operative attitude can be discerned from the religious practices of his Order. One of the questions to be put to a candidate who seeks admission to the pabbajja ordination is whether or not he is a solider[7] in the service of a king. If the answer is in the affirmative, his candidacy will be rejected. This measure may be interpreted as a precaution against a possible confrontation between the Sangha and the state. If that happened it would be very harmful to the very existence of the Order. A similar stand was taken in regard to the general public. If a candidate did not obtain his parents[8] permission, hewould not be admitted to the membership of the Sangha. Originally this was the result of a request made by King Suddhodana, the Buddha‘s father, in connection with the admission of Rāhula, son of the Buddha. It may be said that Suddhodana had a genuine grievance, because the Buddha secretly renounced the world without his permission, and this was repeated in the case of Rāhula,[9] his grandson. The above-noted instances indicate that founder of Buddhism was a keen observer of public opinion and that he endeavoured not to cause any conflict between the state or society and his Order. The members of the Sangha have generally followed this practice even in modern times.

During the lifetime of the Buddha, matters concerning politics were brought before him, and normally he adopted an attitude of non-interference towards them. This was illustrated in the intended invasion of the Vajjian territory by Vasakāra, chief minister of Magadha. There is a lengthy discussion in the Mahā-parinibbāna-sutta[10] on this topic. It amounts to this: that a country will not be conquered by a foreign power, if the people of that country can still maintain their moral, social, political and religious traditions and are united among themselves. He was aware that the Vajjians were in a state of spiritual growth and prosperity, and that therefore no attack should be launched on them. Being a man of great compassion he was in favor of peace. But he did not offer his services for an intervention, possibly because an Enlightened One should not involove himself in secular affairs.

Thus the Buddha’s attitude towards politics and the state is clear. He endeavoured to eliminate the causes which would bring about interference and harassment to the Sangha. However, he was cautious and polite to the administration of the area. In turn, he was greatly honoured by the rulers and nobles of that time. This seems to be the general pattern which guided the relationship between the Sanga and the state in India and Ceylon for Generations. But in medieval and modern times Ceylon was faced with unprecedent political pressure and social challenge. From the standpoint of the history of religion, these are significant stages of development for any religion, and they enable us to observe the important rôle played by Buddhism under various circumstances.

III. The rise and fall of Buddhism in Ceylon

Buddhism may be said to have been the state[11] religion of Ceylon since its introduction in the third century B. C. It occupied a very important positionuntil the beginning of the 16th century. The ancient Sinhalese kings showed great veneration to the Sangha in many ways such as by the construction of shrines and monasteries, donation of land and requisites and so forth. The leaders of the Sangha were regarded as the spiritual teachers of the nation. Whenever there arose important problems of state their advice was sought and followed. In addition, from the 4th century onwards the worship of the tooth[12] relic of the Buddha became one of the greatest national institutions of Ceylon. Today one may witness the fabulous splendour of the annual Perehara pageant in Kandy in which hundreds of decorated elephants parade the streets for more than ten days in honor of the tooth relic. This tooth relic occupied such an important place in Ceylon hislon history that it was the symbol of sovereignty, if any of the contending parties to the throne was its custodian. The description given by Fa-hsien[13] indicates the elaborate precaution taken by the trustees concerning the safety of the relic at Anurādhapura in the beginning of the 5th century. However, the arrival of Western adventurers and colonists in early 16th century marked the beginning of a series of setbacks for Buddhism and its followers. The Portuguese reached the shores of Ceylon in 1505. For about a hundred years the Ceylonese suffered unprecedented damage and humiliation. They were forced to become Catholics and Buddhist establishments were destroyed. The tooth relic was taken away to Goa in South India and a demand for a large ransom was made. It is reported that the portugese took the money, but burnt the velic in the market-square in Goa at the command of their archbishop. This deeply hurt the religious sentiment of the Ceylonese. They were so desperate that they tried to get rid of the Portuguese by whatever means available. Through the help of the Dutch, the Portuguese were driven away. This took place in 1600.

The Dutch, in the beginning, were allies of the Ceylonese and friends of the kings of Kandy. They were regarded as saviors who helped get rid of the Portuguese. However, they in turn became conquerors of Ceylon and ruled the country as badly as the Portuguese did. In the religious sphere, not only did they persecute the Buddhists, but they also forced the early Catholic converts to become Protestants. In the end the Ceylonese could not endure it any more and longed for a change. This time the British turned out to be their new masters. The Dutch were defeated by the English and forced to quit the Island in 1796. Thus their rule came to an end.

It was only in 1815 that the British were able to bring the entire island under their control, in spite of their initial success in 1796. Apparently the English were more refined and subtle in their dealings[14] with the Ceylonesepeople, although in essence they did not differ very much from their predecessors, the Portuguese and the Dutch. It is recorded in a treaty signed by the British and the last king of Kandy in 1815 that the former promised to offer protection regarding religious organizations, worship, sanctuary, practices, establishment and so forth. But in course of time this was not carried out by the British government. They adopted a policy of civilizing people in the Orient with their own culture and religion. In other words, the native culture and religion was suppressed and eliminated as far as possible. Under these circumstances Christianity and foreign missionaries were in a very advantageous position. Many Ceylonese attended Christian schools to undergo a baptism in Western culture and education, so that they would be enabled to obtain government jobs, and some of them were converted to Christianity. As this was the tendency the traditional monastic system of education was sadly neglected. Further, large tracts of land (202,000 acres) were taken away by the government from the monasteries without compensation, which affected seriously the maintenance and development of the Buddhist establishments. On the whole the Buddhists were treated badly, as if they were third-class citizens. This is because there was discrimination between those who were educated in the English medium, or Christians, and those who were Buddhists receiving traditional education in Sinhalese. This situation did not see any improvement during the British rule of nearly 150 years.[15] These were the important factors which brought about the determined assertion of the revival of Sinhalese national culture and religion in modern times. Perhaps it is a little exaggerated. But if one takes into account their national sentiment and pride which were suppressed for centuries by foreign domination, he may understand the Sinhalese Buddhists’ having asserted their legitimate rights and performed many acts which seem to have gone to the other extreme. This reaction may be natural, but some of the events which took place in recent times appear to be extraordinary, and the ultimate value of their objectives remains an undecided question.

IV. Buddhism and Polities

Ceylon gained dominion status from the British in 1948. For all practical purposes, she is an independent country, although she is still a member of the British Commonwealth. Owing to this change two of the main issues which have featured prominently in recent politics in Ceylon are: Buddhism as the national religion and Sinhalese as the national language. Any noted political party may have a special affinity－leaning to the left or right－but it cannotavoid taking stock of the situation. Very often the fortune of a political party depends on whether or not it is for or against these issues. This is seen in the convincing victory of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party led by S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike[16] in the 1956 general election and that of Dudley Senanayaka in 1965. The case of the former is especially revealing. Bandaranaike belonged to a wealthy and westernized family. His parents were Christians. For patriotic or political reasons he became a Buddhist and associated himself with the national aspirations of the common men. His objective was to make Sinhalese the national language and restore Buddhism to its pristine glory as the state religion of Ceylon. Incidentally, language and religion are closely associated with ancient Ceylonese culture, especially Buddhist culture. However, from the racial point of view, the ‘Sinhala only’ language policy is a safeguard against the non-Sinhalese people’s gaining economic opportunities and high positions in the government service as they－the Tamil and other minority groups-will not stand a chance of competeing with the native Sinhalese citizens. Before he commenced his election campaign in 1956, his party (Sri Lanka Freedom Party) made an alliance with the leftist parties and it was called Mahājana Eksath Peramuna (People’s United Front). In addition a group of Buddhist monks formed a party called Eksath Bhikkhu Peramuna (United Front of the Bhikkhus) whose aim was also to make Sinhalese the national language of Ceylon, and it canvassed votes for Bandaranaike’s party. It was reported in the press that about 1,200 yellow-robed bhikkhus rode many mini-Volkswagen buses flying the Buddhist flag. They traveled to the remotest villages and persuaded the peasants to vote for the coalition. In their speeches they emphasized the importance of Buddhism, and the Sinhalese language and culture. They vowed to defeat the United National Party, the ruling party at the time. “Rout the U.N.P.” was their slogan, because that party was considered to be pro-West and capitalistic. The rural population of Ceylon generally consists of followers of Buddhism. They show profound respect to the Buddhist monks. In turn, the bhikkhus are their spiritual teachers and advisers, and their advice carries great weight among the masses. Bandaranaike’s success in winning the election was undoubtedly due to the contributions made by the bhikkhus. If they had been against his policy, or if they had not given him their support, the outcome would have been quite different. This shows that Buddhism has become a powerful weapon which can make a political party the ruling party in the country, under the normal functioning of democracy.

During Bandaranaike’s government until his tragic death in 1959, he putinto effect many of his election promises. The notable ones are: Sinhalese became the sole national language, Buddhism was made the state religion, the private Buddhist institutes Vidyālankāra and Vidyodaya were elevated to the status of national universities, and bhikkhu instructors overnight became professors receiving salaries almost the same as those in the University of Ceylon, though hardly qualified for the job, the national dress of baggy shirt and sarong became fashionable, and soft drinks replaced whisky in official cocktail parties. At a later date the nationalization of public utilities was implemented. His progressive measures were praised by almost all, except a few extremists in the Buddhist Sangha who were responsible for his assassination. Such a drastic act as was carried out by Somārama and Buddharakkhita-two Buddhist monks-seems unbelievable. This sort of thing was never heard of in the 2,500-year-old history of Buddhism, not only in Ceylon, but in the entire Buddhist world.

Somārama, the assassin of Bandaranaike, was working as a native medical practitioner in a government-sponsored Ayurvedic hospital in Colombo. He had a certain grudge in connection with his profession. It was alleged that he did not receive a fair deal from Bandaranaike’s government officials. Or it is more likely that the master-mind of the conspiracy utilized him as a tool to deliver the fatal blow, and he was made a scapegoat.[16A] Whatever the truth may be, his name will go down in Ceylon history as the Buddhist bhikkhu that killed a prime minister.

Buddharakkhita, one of the leading figures in the conspiracy, was another Buddhist bhikkhu. He was wealthy, influential, a chief monk of the well-known Kelaniya Temple near Colombo, and an important member of Bandaranaike’s Freedom Party. It is understood that he helped Bandaranike win the general election, and at his recommendation a lady was made Minister of Health. It appears that Bandaranaike’s language policy of ‘Sinhala only but Tamil also’ did not please a large section of the Buddhist population, especially Buddharakkhita and his faction. In addition, his personal interest in a shipping corporation clashed with certain measures adopted by the government. These and other factors made him decide to plot the conspiracy. After a fair trial, he was sentenced to life imprisonment and later he died in jail. His friend Somārama, the assassin, received a death sentence and was hanged. However, just before the execution he was converted to Christianity, and therefore he did not die as a Buddhist monk!

In the 1965 general election Buddhism also played an important role whichfinally determined the winner who formed the new government. On this occasion the main issue was centered on the choice of democracy or Communism. The Buddhists favored a demoeratic government and were against the coalition of the leftist parties led by Mrs. Bandaranaike. During the election campaign many Buddhist leaders including the abbot of the influential Malwatta Temple in Kandy emphasized that if the Communists were to come to power, Ceylon might be the next victim, and meet with the same fate that had happened to Tibet.[17] In such a situation, there would not be any freedom of religious worship or speech, and even the institution of free election would come to an end. For the purpose of protesting against the taking over of the press proposed by Mrs. Bandaranaike’s government, a Buddhist organization by the name of Maha-Sangha Sabba (Organization of the Great Buddhist Order) convened a mammoth meeting in Colombo in 1964. Hundreds of yellow-robed bhikkhus paraded the streets denouncing the undemocratic action of the government. They asserted that if there were no freedom of speech it would amount to the destruction of Buddhism, because that is the way of the Communists and totalitarian countries. It was on this issue that Mrs. Bandaranike’s government toppled over, and the United National Party resumed the reins of power.

Assuming the leadership in the new government in 1965 Dudley Senanayaka endeavoured to carry out his election promises. He showered honours on the abbot of the Malwatta and Asgiriya monasteries, including the donation of property. He declared the four Poya days of the month as official weekly holidays which replaced the Sundays. These Poya days follow the different phases of the moon. When it is a full-moon day the bhikkhus observe the ceremony of purification and recite the Pratimokasha-sutra, hence they are sacred to the Buddhists.[18] The ‘Sinhala only’ language policy was continued, and English as a medium of instruction in the schools and universities was frozen in 1967. It is not that the educated in Ceylon do not recognize the importance of English as an international language, but it was sacrificed for the consideration of political fortune in future elections. It is a major issue clearly related to national culture and Buddhism. On this and allied issues a political party may stand or fall.

Judging by the trends and evidence over the years, it is obvious that Buddhism will play a dominant and decisive role in the political arena in Ceylon as long as she remains an independent and democratic country. If the leftists continue to exert their influence and capture power by undemocratic means, well, the possibility of Ceylon becoming a second Tibet cannot be ruled out.However, we hope this will not happen.

V. Buddhism and society

Reviewing the above discussion Buddhism has indeed, undergone many changes since its introduction to Ceylon. This trend will continue in the face of modern political, social and economic impact. The following will illustrate some of the changes that have taken place:

1) Education－In the early days young Buddhist novices or bhikkhus were taught elementary subjects such as reading, writing, and Sinhalese and Pali texts which would help them understand Buddhist teachings, and eventually they would become preachers or masters of ceremonies in religious functions. In the fifties, when a residential hall for bhikkhus called Sanghārama was built in the University of Ceylon at Peradeniya, bhikkhu-students joined the lay co-eds in the lecture halls and participated in the various activities of the University. Most of them obtained the B. A degree, and a few even the doctorate and were appointed to the faculty. In many instances the bhikkhugraduates took to teaching as a profession, and some actually gave up the robe[19] and returned to the life of a layman. Ceylonese society in general does not favor this state of affairs and looks down upon the ex-bhikkhus. However, Professor G. P. Malalasekara, a leading Buddhist scholar and chairman of the National Council of Higher Education, pleaded with the public that the well-educated ex-bhikkhus would not do any harm to Buddhism, but they might become good citizens owing to their Buddhist training. At one stage, the government proposed to withhold their B. A. certificates, should they return to the laity, and remuneration would not be paid to them, if they took to teaching as a profession. This may be the result of the government’s concern over the purity of the Sangha and its future. But these measures do not seem to be very effective. With the elevation of Vidyālankāra and Vidyodaya Pirivenas to university status, the bhikkhus of these institutions suddenly became Professors and vice-chancellors. Apparently this was a transitional arrangement. As of today the vice-chancellors and most of the professors of these new universities are wellqualified laymen chiefly drawn from the University of Ceylon. Further, the student body of these two universities is no longer exclusively for the bhikkhus or laymen, but for women as well. Due to this change, their early ‘monastic’ characteristics are lost for ever. One may ask whether this tranformation is good for a religious institution which was meant for quite a different purpose. The answer should be given by the persons who are immediately concernedwith it. The present structure of the Vidyalankara and Vidyodaya universities is a phenomenon which was never expected by the original sponsors, although they story every hard for their establishment and even exerted political pressure. As it is, we are sure that the members of the original Pirivenas must have mixed feelings.

2) Social Service－It is well-known that the practical aspect of Theravada Buddhism is the attainment of Arhatship. Therefore a bhikkhu’s principal duty is to devote his ime to meditation, study of the scriptures and observance of the Vinaya rules. To be associated with social service is an innovation of quite recent origin, and it has not attracted popular attention. However, this trend is on the increase. In Ceylon today there are quite a few good Buddhist schools[20] for educating Buddhist children which compare favourably with good Christian mission schools. In addition, orphanages, homes for the aged rest houses for pilgrims and other charitable institutions are jointly sponsored and maintained by the Sangha and laity. It is true that the laity shoulders a major share of the responsibility, but there is an exception. There is an educated bhikkhu who donated all his income received from teaching to an orphanange in Kandy. This spirit of publicmindedness is praiseworthy especially when it is associated with a Theravadin bhikkhu. Moreover, bhikkhus are paying visits to hospitals and prisons so as to inspire spiritual a wareness and self-confidence in the sick and the convicted. This should be considered a healthy move.

3) The Sangha and the Economy－Economics play a very significant part in the life of the Sangha, though outwardly it does not appear to be so. Owing to the ascetic nature of mendicancy the maintenance of bhikkhus seems to be no problem. As a matter of fact, the practice of begging alms from house to house is still seen in many locations in Ceylon. However, this is not the only way by which the bhikkhus get their sustenance. There are Dayaka Sabhas (Donors’ Association) in many Buddhist monasteries. They take care of the general needs of a particular vihara and the regular supply of meals to the bhikkhus. Their food-supply committee consists of 30-31 devotees. Each of them offers a meal once every month. Occasionally bhikkhus are invited to danas (luncheons) by lay disciples at their hornes, and gifts of robes, bowls and other useful articles for bhikkhus are normally given. Moreover, it is understood that each bhikkhu has a dayaka (donor) who looks after his personal needs. This donor may be a friend or relative of his. In this way the financial problem of maintaining the bhikkhus seems to have been solved. However,life in modern society appears to be more complicated than one could ever expect. According to the Pralimoskha a bhikkhu is not permitted to handle gold,[21] silver or precious metal. It is implied that he should not touch money in any form. But this restriction causes a complicated situation. Take for instance, the case where a bhikkhu, out of necessity, is traveling by bus or train to some place. As there is no free transport, he has to pay for his ticket. In certain cases an attendant travels with him and buys the ticket for him. But it is not possible for everyone to have a lay agent. In order to solve this problem the bus conductor is allowed to take the required amount of money out of an envelope which is carried about by the bhikkhu. In another instance, it is reported that some wealthy bhikkhus, who kiip an account with a bank, write out their cheques instead of paying cash. Strictly speaking these practices are not in accordance with the spirit of the Vinaya, as they are opposed to the ideal of poverty and detachment from worldly possessions. Nowadays nobody seems to object to this ‘sensible’ expediency. It is obvious that modern Sangha mingt have to make a suitable adjustment to a fast changing society, although there was no problem in ancient times.

4) Sangha and Caste—Regarding caste observance, there is an unusual phenomenon among members of the Sangha in Ceylon. The founder of Buddhism was called a reformer by some, because he was opposed to caste distinction.[22] Many of his disciples came from varied social strata, some were of very high caste, while others were of very low birth. On this subject, the Buddha made an interesting simile, that the water of different rivers might bear the trademark of a particular river. But once it entered the ocean, its identity would be lost. Similarly the disciples of the Buddha were children of one family (of one Sakya family), and their caste differences[23] must not be recognized. However, the leading Buddhist sect, the Siamese Nikāya represented by the Malwatta and Asgiriya monasteries in Ceylon takes a different attitude. From the middle of the 18th century members of this sect were recruited from the Goigama caste (farmer’s caste). This is considered a high caste as it is closely associated with the highland farmers in the central provinces in contrast to the fishing folk residing along the southern and eastern coast of Ceylon. Even today this Nikaya would decline to take anybody into the Sangha, if he does not belong to this caste. The other two minor sects, the Amarapura and Ramanya Nikayas are not in favor of this practice and generally accept disciples from various castes. As they are in the minority (less than one-fourth of the total strength of ca. 18,000 bhikkhus), no visible change or influence is witnessed.

This practice might be related to the sọcial structure of Sinhalese families.In general, the Sinhalese profess the Buddhist faith but observe caste distinction, especially so when it concerns marriage The two leading divisions, the Goigama (farmer) and Karawa (fisherman), are based on profession, but the geographical location is a main factor which emphasizes social distinctions. This caste observance among the Sinhalese is not quite the same as its counterpart in India. In India the Brahman is the highest in the social order, and a farmer’s position is ranked third along with other professional denomination. The Goigama in Ceylon is almost equal to that of the Brahman in rank. However, this does not mean that there was no ‘brahman’ caste in the Island in ancient times, but it was not popular. Today there exists a surname called ‘Kiribamuna’ (Milk-brahman) among the Sinhalese Buddhists. We understand that persons who bear this surname do not appear to have any special religious significance as the Hindu brahmans do. Possibly it is merely a name. Thus we have a glimpse of the characteristics of caste ovservance among the Buddhists in Ceylon.

In recent years there has been witnessed a significant movement of changing surnames of Western origin such as ‘de Silva’, ‘Fernando’, ‘Pinto’, ‘Perera’ and so forth to ‘Aryapala’, ‘Buddhadasa’, ‘Somadasa’, ‘Gunawardena’ and so on. Each of these Sanskrit terms has a meaning, viz., ‘Protector of the Aryan Truth’, ‘Servant of the Buddha’, ‘Servant of the Moon’ and ‘Growth of Virtue’ respectively. This practice is becoming increasingly popular. It serves two functions. In the first place it indicates a return to the national culture which is deeply rooted in Buddhism and Indian civilization. Secondly it discards Western influence which has been kept alive by the people unknowingly. Use of the new names may serve as a device to conceal one’s real caste. Nowadays we often notice the difference of surnames between a father and his children. It seems confusing but its deeper significance for social readjustment in a changing society cannot be ignored.

In conclusion we may say that owing to the democratic form of government in Ceylon since 1948 and the traditional reverence shown to the members of the Sangha by the people, Buddhism has regained its prestige as the national religion of that country. It is playing an increasingly important role in the political and social life of the people. It is a healthy sign for its development. However there are undemocratic forces at work which oppose the national cultural heritage and traditions. If those forces gain the upper hand, the future of Buddhism in Ceylon might present a quite different picture. What will that picture look like? Nobody can venture a guess at this stage.